* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 75 76 76 72 69 66 43 24 27 26 23 38 45 50 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 75 76 76 72 69 66 43 24 27 26 23 38 45 50 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 74 74 73 70 68 58 41 31 28 28 29 35 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 10 9 3 10 20 24 24 13 9 5 7 10 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 -2 1 5 9 4 2 2 -1 -3 0 -1 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 288 254 155 158 193 220 285 312 345 10 25 54 180 184 217 206 310 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.5 24.9 24.8 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.7 25.9 25.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 116 115 112 108 106 100 99 99 103 105 108 112 113 112 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 103 104 105 103 99 96 89 85 85 91 94 97 101 102 101 105 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -54.5 -55.0 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -56.0 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 7 4 2 1 1 1 1 3 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 45 48 49 50 49 50 37 23 24 23 20 17 18 24 26 30 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 32 31 31 30 32 35 21 9 10 7 2 10 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -49 -49 -46 -34 0 21 -29 -58 -48 -45 -42 -17 -33 -38 -44 -45 200 MB DIV 15 4 6 7 21 57 24 -25 -12 -35 -27 -5 3 10 19 1 -17 700-850 TADV 8 9 14 11 11 -7 -25 -40 -46 -27 -4 9 17 19 0 1 -4 LAND (KM) 2344 2357 2369 2214 2067 1692 1342 1053 888 817 869 1013 1216 1485 1753 1995 2250 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.9 29.5 30.6 31.3 31.6 31.2 30.2 29.0 27.6 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.6 40.5 39.4 37.6 35.8 31.2 26.8 23.2 21.4 21.3 22.6 25.0 27.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 14 17 19 20 17 12 6 6 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. -30. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 1. 4. -16. -34. -33. -37. -42. -32. -27. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -1. -3. -27. -46. -43. -44. -47. -32. -25. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 27.7 41.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.82 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 17.7% 11.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 9.4% 7.1% 2.6% 0.6% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 9.1% 6.4% 3.8% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 5( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 73 75 76 76 72 69 66 43 24 27 26 23 38 45 50 18HR AGO 70 69 70 72 73 73 69 66 63 40 21 24 23 20 35 42 47 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 69 69 65 62 59 36 17 20 19 16 31 38 43 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 61 57 54 51 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT