* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 136 132 125 117 99 81 69 41 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 92 63 47 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 91 62 46 37 36 43 45 40 34 27 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 15 18 20 36 49 73 84 76 64 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 2 -2 0 12 9 19 8 4 14 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 209 236 235 227 213 225 243 258 282 286 291 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.5 23.6 21.0 17.0 13.0 15.1 14.0 14.6 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 155 152 144 134 102 91 80 75 77 73 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 138 136 128 121 95 86 77 73 74 71 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 4 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 58 52 46 40 31 30 33 37 33 47 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 27 26 24 26 32 27 24 25 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 31 13 20 28 14 66 128 90 86 94 42 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 74 53 28 54 116 35 54 34 -7 4 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 10 1 -8 -10 45 86 131 181 83 159 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -26 -140 -212 -142 -154 95 303 324 495 1319 1105 540 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.4 32.5 33.7 34.8 37.4 40.5 43.8 46.3 48.1 49.2 49.8 50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.5 84.4 83.3 81.6 79.9 74.6 66.7 57.2 46.6 35.1 25.3 17.1 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 18 21 30 37 39 40 37 30 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -18. -34. -54. -73. -90.-103.-112.-118.-122.-123.-123.-121. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -26. -28. -26. -27. -24. -20. -18. -20. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -0. -7. -12. -12. -26. -31. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -10. -18. -36. -54. -66. -94.-115.-127.-151.-157.-151.-146.-146.-150. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 30.2 85.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 828.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.6% 3.2% 3.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 92 63 47 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 135 134 105 89 80 72 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 12HR AGO 135 132 131 115 106 98 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 116 108 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 108 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 IN 6HR 135 92 83 77 74 70 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT