* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 127 126 122 115 102 87 69 53 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 110 78 56 43 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 125 80 56 43 32 36 40 37 27 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 11 14 18 18 34 47 61 90 92 88 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 2 -3 8 6 12 15 0 5 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 223 217 230 240 217 216 237 243 267 273 280 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.4 27.0 23.3 19.9 14.3 16.3 13.5 13.0 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 153 154 145 129 100 87 76 79 74 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 135 136 130 119 94 83 74 76 71 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -50.4 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 58 51 47 34 30 28 31 36 45 64 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 31 30 28 26 25 26 25 27 20 8 14 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 38 16 20 25 39 117 146 138 93 102 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 68 51 24 29 103 66 34 67 13 0 -1 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 2 5 14 -1 0 -37 30 76 179 -38 21 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 124 -15 -135 -227 -157 -88 248 233 178 791 1506 827 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.1 31.2 32.3 33.4 35.8 38.7 42.0 45.1 48.0 50.2 51.5 52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.3 85.5 84.8 83.5 82.2 78.0 71.6 63.5 53.6 42.2 31.7 22.3 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 18 25 32 37 41 39 33 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 30 9 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 12 CX,CY: 2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -11. -24. -42. -58. -73. -84. -93. -99.-103.-105.-105.-104. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. -24. -27. -31. -33. -30. -29. -31. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -5. -15. -32. -25. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -3. -10. -23. -38. -56. -72. -98.-129.-133.-136.-132.-129.-130.-136. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 29.0 86.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 721.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 5.5% 5.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 18.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.3% 1.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 0( 38) 0( 38) 0( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 110 78 56 43 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 92 70 57 46 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 99 86 75 66 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 102 91 82 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 95 86 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 IN 6HR 125 110 101 95 92 87 78 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT