* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 58 55 48 39 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 58 55 48 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 55 52 43 34 26 24 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 15 19 28 33 41 43 54 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 14 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 298 297 265 233 233 234 238 247 250 263 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.7 23.5 24.5 28.6 28.9 28.2 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 127 123 122 100 111 154 157 150 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 53 49 45 42 44 46 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 32 32 31 32 29 21 8 15 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 54 52 49 82 39 38 48 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 64 61 57 46 60 30 22 30 53 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 -2 10 7 14 1 11 23 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1559 1436 1311 1146 982 620 244 34 -297 -760 -677 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.5 20.4 22.6 24.9 27.2 29.4 31.6 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 124.2 123.1 121.8 120.6 117.9 114.9 111.7 108.0 103.9 99.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 18 19 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -15. -26. -40. -43. -46. -50. -54. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -2. -12. -31. -22. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -2. -5. -12. -21. -33. -53. -48. -49. -52. -56. -61. -67. -74. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.4 125.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##