* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 52 50 45 36 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 52 50 45 36 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 53 52 47 39 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 8 13 16 23 31 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 10 8 11 10 8 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 255 229 224 239 247 234 225 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 132 127 122 115 114 115 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 126 121 116 108 106 107 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 77 74 67 64 56 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 16 14 12 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -11 -17 -23 -38 -57 -60 -53 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 79 85 73 91 73 29 5 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 4 6 6 12 1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1487 1526 1568 1612 1659 1771 1924 2088 2085 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.1 15.4 16.3 17.1 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.4 32.9 34.0 35.4 36.9 38.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 15 11 7 3 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -15. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -6. -12. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 5. -0. -9. -21. -29. -33. -35. -37. -37. -38. -36. -35. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.8 30.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.64 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 18.2% 11.5% 7.8% 6.8% 9.1% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 14.4% 5.8% 3.2% 1.5% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7% Bayesian: 3.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 11.4% 5.9% 3.7% 2.8% 4.5% 3.7% 0.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 51 52 50 45 36 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 45 40 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 40 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT