* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 68 71 72 73 71 61 53 46 43 42 49 54 57 60 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 68 71 72 73 71 61 53 46 43 42 49 54 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 67 68 70 71 68 62 56 50 46 45 48 52 55 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 2 2 3 7 7 8 12 24 21 11 6 7 5 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 12 8 6 7 0 3 5 12 6 2 3 1 -1 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 321 336 251 246 239 190 235 264 309 318 338 14 78 179 228 216 246 SST (C) 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.0 25.4 24.6 24.8 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 113 114 116 116 112 105 105 99 97 99 101 103 104 105 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 97 98 101 105 103 96 94 86 83 85 88 91 91 92 94 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.6 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 1 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 38 42 46 46 50 53 52 46 37 37 35 31 28 28 30 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 29 29 32 31 32 31 26 23 20 19 18 22 24 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -13 -11 -38 -52 -46 -23 20 2 28 0 -4 -10 20 -4 -22 -39 200 MB DIV -44 -49 4 6 -17 19 19 39 -21 2 -57 -21 0 8 0 -3 -9 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 8 12 -2 13 -31 -25 -10 -11 -8 2 -1 5 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 2189 2241 2294 2319 2345 2270 1947 1588 1274 1030 904 875 949 1092 1257 1428 1613 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.9 30.1 31.2 31.7 31.6 31.1 30.2 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.7 42.4 42.1 41.4 40.8 38.2 34.2 29.7 25.8 22.9 21.7 22.0 23.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 9 15 20 18 15 9 4 6 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. -0. -7. -12. -17. -19. -21. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 6. -4. -12. -19. -22. -23. -16. -11. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.8 42.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.95 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 16.0% 11.1% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.9% 4.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 67 68 71 72 73 71 61 53 46 43 42 49 54 57 60 18HR AGO 65 64 65 66 69 70 71 69 59 51 44 41 40 47 52 55 58 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 65 66 67 65 55 47 40 37 36 43 48 51 54 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 59 60 58 48 40 33 30 29 36 41 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT