* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 72 74 74 73 66 56 46 38 35 36 41 50 51 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 70 72 74 74 73 66 56 46 38 35 36 41 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 69 68 68 69 72 71 67 61 53 47 43 43 45 49 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 3 3 3 4 11 10 9 20 26 18 12 10 7 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 14 10 6 4 5 1 1 14 15 4 4 1 5 4 5 2 SHEAR DIR 289 300 307 209 228 159 224 266 283 291 324 341 43 87 146 24 26 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.9 24.4 24.0 24.4 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 115 114 114 113 111 108 107 102 97 98 99 102 105 105 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 98 96 97 100 102 99 96 90 84 84 86 90 92 92 92 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.9 -55.5 -55.1 -55.1 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 4 2 1 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 33 38 43 46 44 48 51 52 40 36 35 33 30 31 30 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 30 30 30 32 32 32 29 26 22 19 17 17 19 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -11 -13 -13 -36 -53 -29 -10 18 8 37 13 0 14 10 21 10 200 MB DIV -33 -46 -50 0 10 0 20 35 5 -8 -22 -62 -7 9 16 45 2 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 3 7 10 10 -8 -38 -8 -4 -8 4 16 9 15 14 LAND (KM) 2086 2162 2239 2272 2307 2327 2124 1762 1439 1169 952 822 805 910 1061 1232 1407 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 29.2 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.6 29.8 31.2 32.1 32.6 32.3 31.4 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.7 42.4 42.2 41.8 41.5 39.8 36.3 31.7 27.5 23.9 21.5 20.5 21.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 4 5 12 19 20 17 13 8 5 7 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. -3. -8. -15. -21. -23. -23. -20. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 1. -9. -19. -27. -30. -29. -24. -15. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 29.8 42.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.84 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 449.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 11.5% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 5.1% 4.2% 2.1% 0.7% 2.8% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 7.4% 5.3% 4.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 5( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 69 70 72 74 74 73 66 56 46 38 35 36 41 50 51 18HR AGO 65 64 66 67 69 71 71 70 63 53 43 35 32 33 38 47 48 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 64 66 66 65 58 48 38 30 27 28 33 42 43 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 59 59 58 51 41 31 23 20 21 26 35 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT