* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 54 52 51 45 40 36 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 54 52 51 45 40 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 52 49 46 39 33 26 22 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 12 4 6 21 26 34 41 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 4 10 10 5 6 4 0 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 359 298 238 234 230 231 229 245 248 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.4 23.3 24.5 29.4 29.0 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 124 125 125 119 98 111 162 158 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 52 53 50 44 40 44 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 36 36 36 34 34 33 23 9 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 51 57 51 55 61 76 40 31 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 44 50 49 52 51 40 50 18 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 5 4 4 8 2 7 0 11 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1745 1647 1549 1422 1295 965 609 235 49 -324 -766 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.3 18.9 20.7 22.8 25.0 27.3 29.7 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.0 126.2 125.3 124.3 123.2 120.6 117.9 114.9 111.6 107.9 104.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 14 16 17 18 19 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 21 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -16. -25. -27. -29. -31. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. -0. -13. -33. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -9. -15. -20. -24. -36. -57. -50. -51. -52. -54. -56. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.7 127.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 364.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##