* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 109 109 108 107 100 94 83 78 67 51 32 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 109 109 108 107 55 36 30 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 112 113 112 109 56 36 30 36 37 33 28 25 25 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 9 8 14 11 22 34 40 55 77 76 55 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 8 1 0 1 3 5 11 14 13 10 6 2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 274 287 284 246 241 228 228 209 245 245 259 262 258 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.5 28.1 26.3 23.2 20.3 14.1 15.4 12.4 10.6 11.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 157 156 162 142 122 100 88 75 76 71 69 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 141 138 137 144 127 112 94 84 73 72 69 67 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -52.6 -52.8 -51.3 -49.4 -46.7 -44.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 10 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 65 66 57 48 37 32 31 38 45 40 48 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 30 31 29 27 22 26 25 21 16 14 16 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 34 37 50 26 30 18 44 112 97 95 136 178 254 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 29 34 46 49 36 92 71 111 83 59 41 32 18 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 19 22 9 3 2 -3 -5 -29 42 66 165 159 51 34 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 404 367 258 139 27 -193 -128 -13 302 330 194 747 1319 1210 785 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.6 27.6 28.7 29.7 31.8 34.0 36.3 39.0 42.2 45.3 48.3 51.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.4 86.4 86.0 85.7 83.8 80.4 76.0 69.4 60.6 51.6 42.8 35.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 15 20 25 33 37 35 31 26 23 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 39 31 29 29 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -16. -25. -34. -42. -50. -57. -64. -69. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. -2. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -22. -22. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -11. -8. -11. -17. -25. -28. -25. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 3. 2. -5. -11. -22. -27. -38. -54. -73. -86. -89. -91. -91. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 25.5 86.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.6% 21.4% 19.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.5% 19.5% 10.9% 5.0% 2.0% 5.3% 5.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 36.8% 19.4% 6.7% 16.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.6% 20.1% 12.4% 10.1% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 28( 47) 27( 62) 0( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 22 9( 29) 12( 38) 0( 38) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 109 109 108 107 55 36 30 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 104 103 102 50 31 25 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 99 47 28 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 42 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 34 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 109 100 94 91 69 50 44 42 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 109 109 100 94 90 71 65 63 52 35 35 35 35 35 35 35