* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 63 65 66 69 70 65 59 49 38 31 28 33 34 34 V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 63 65 66 69 70 65 59 49 38 31 28 33 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 63 63 65 67 68 66 61 54 44 36 31 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 7 4 3 6 10 11 8 19 35 38 25 19 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 13 9 6 3 -2 0 5 8 8 6 12 6 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 286 307 296 266 234 226 262 269 299 310 340 1 357 357 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.3 25.9 25.4 25.1 25.0 24.4 23.7 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 114 114 114 115 113 111 109 108 103 96 92 91 89 88 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 98 98 97 98 100 100 100 98 93 85 80 77 75 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.8 -55.8 -55.5 -54.9 -54.4 -53.7 -54.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -55.2 -55.0 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 39 43 47 50 54 57 52 42 39 36 34 26 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 29 30 30 32 33 30 27 24 21 20 19 22 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -5 -10 -12 -11 -54 -40 -31 24 17 5 -24 -109 -128 -118 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -34 -50 -51 -3 -19 31 10 61 15 7 -48 -58 -31 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 1 1 4 12 4 10 -32 -43 -19 -17 -10 -16 -16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1978 2067 2155 2215 2274 2320 2199 1887 1564 1222 965 832 770 764 755 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.0 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.5 29.6 31.1 32.2 33.0 33.3 33.4 33.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.1 42.8 42.5 42.1 41.8 40.2 37.2 33.2 28.9 24.3 20.9 18.9 17.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 11 17 19 19 17 11 6 2 0 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 5. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. -1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -19. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 5. -1. -11. -22. -29. -32. -27. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.7 43.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 62 63 65 66 69 70 65 59 49 38 31 28 33 34 34 18HR AGO 60 59 59 60 62 63 66 67 62 56 46 35 28 25 30 31 31 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 59 60 63 64 59 53 43 32 25 22 27 28 28 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 53 56 57 52 46 36 25 18 15 20 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT