* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 85 86 85 87 84 79 73 70 56 39 26 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 82 85 86 85 72 42 32 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 83 85 87 88 76 43 32 34 37 36 32 28 28 29 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 16 12 14 16 10 13 11 20 35 45 64 77 80 57 37 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 4 3 -2 2 2 4 12 11 10 7 6 14 10 6 SHEAR DIR 291 290 286 280 281 250 263 248 240 223 237 246 256 240 228 222 239 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.8 27.2 25.2 22.3 20.4 12.6 14.9 11.4 10.3 10.7 10.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 160 161 159 158 151 131 112 95 88 73 74 70 69 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 144 144 141 140 135 118 103 88 83 71 71 68 67 66 66 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -52.0 -52.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.4 -50.6 -48.4 -45.3 -43.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 0.6 1.5 0.6 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 6 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 67 66 71 62 53 42 34 34 41 46 45 49 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 28 27 30 27 24 22 25 20 16 14 18 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 72 61 53 47 23 41 17 15 8 57 109 79 66 99 141 230 249 200 MB DIV 7 24 32 32 20 48 31 84 73 100 68 53 55 58 81 69 61 700-850 TADV 25 26 20 17 13 3 0 -18 -28 -50 -25 -8 86 -48 -88 -65 -22 LAND (KM) 196 301 403 335 219 -42 -154 -103 160 298 283 196 755 1286 1233 835 589 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.7 25.7 26.8 27.9 30.1 32.4 34.7 37.2 40.0 43.0 46.1 49.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.0 86.2 86.2 86.2 85.1 82.7 79.1 73.9 67.2 59.4 50.7 42.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 14 17 22 27 31 34 32 29 25 23 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 41 36 28 37 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -18. -24. -30. -34. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -19. -27. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -2. -7. -10. -8. -15. -22. -25. -20. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 5. 7. 4. -1. -7. -10. -24. -41. -54. -61. -67. -72. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 23.6 85.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 18.0% 11.8% 8.8% 8.0% 9.7% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 11.2% 21.3% 13.7% 13.4% 8.6% 14.7% 11.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 6.4% 7.5% 1.5% 3.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.0% 15.6% 9.0% 8.4% 5.7% 8.3% 7.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 10( 25) 0( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 4( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 85 86 85 72 42 32 29 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 82 83 82 69 39 29 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 76 63 33 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 56 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 80 82 85 76 70 66 36 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS