* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 57 57 57 59 62 66 65 60 51 39 24 17 16 17 18 V (KT) LAND 55 55 57 57 57 59 62 66 65 60 51 39 24 17 16 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 58 58 58 59 63 64 61 55 45 34 27 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 15 9 1 6 9 15 19 33 42 51 34 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 13 11 9 10 7 1 -3 -2 1 6 20 6 11 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 264 246 269 297 54 323 287 282 275 308 313 331 341 6 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.3 25.3 26.1 26.2 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.0 25.0 23.9 22.7 22.6 23.0 23.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 100 107 114 114 114 112 111 109 109 100 91 89 91 95 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 88 94 99 98 98 99 100 101 101 91 81 79 81 84 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 -54.9 -54.6 -53.9 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -55.6 -55.8 -55.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 3 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 30 31 32 33 39 48 52 57 57 52 47 45 42 40 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 29 30 32 33 35 33 30 27 24 19 17 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 43 28 6 -3 -8 -45 -41 -27 -6 -37 -32 -78 -53 -33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -30 -38 -21 -45 -61 10 -29 41 10 26 8 1 -25 -39 -45 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -3 -3 0 1 9 3 15 -41 -31 -26 -18 -31 -36 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1732 1852 1972 2067 2163 2276 2321 2170 1840 1455 1136 866 634 459 322 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.7 31.8 30.8 30.0 29.2 28.4 28.7 29.8 31.2 32.8 34.2 35.1 34.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.2 43.6 43.0 42.6 42.3 41.5 39.7 36.8 32.6 27.3 22.4 18.3 15.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 7 6 11 16 22 23 20 14 9 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. -0. -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 5. 0. -5. -11. -18. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 10. 5. -4. -16. -31. -38. -39. -38. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.7 44.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 57 57 57 59 62 66 65 60 51 39 24 17 16 17 18 18HR AGO 55 54 56 56 56 58 61 65 64 59 50 38 23 16 15 16 17 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 53 56 60 59 54 45 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 47 50 54 53 48 39 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT