* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 74 72 70 65 62 56 48 37 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 74 72 70 65 62 56 48 37 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 74 72 71 68 62 55 45 36 26 23 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 9 6 10 14 27 27 39 47 50 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 7 8 12 13 3 8 0 7 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 94 21 18 341 325 313 272 245 229 243 236 254 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.4 25.7 23.9 23.2 24.9 28.6 28.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 133 130 127 128 122 104 97 116 155 158 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 53 55 54 51 52 47 41 40 47 51 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 39 38 38 37 38 36 34 28 18 13 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 76 67 81 67 52 46 58 57 43 58 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 53 16 14 21 42 53 41 48 32 10 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 5 10 10 -8 16 -17 71 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1928 1870 1813 1732 1652 1435 1135 789 405 0 -186 -706 -805 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.3 19.9 21.9 24.2 26.7 29.3 32.1 34.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.1 127.7 127.1 126.4 124.5 122.1 119.5 116.6 113.3 109.4 105.0 100.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 9 12 15 17 19 20 23 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 16 19 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -17. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -7. -14. -21. -30. -33. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -11. -25. -29. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -19. -27. -38. -55. -64. -58. -62. -64. -68. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.8 128.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 -1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 21.3% 15.3% 14.7% 11.3% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 8.6% 5.7% 5.2% 3.8% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##