* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 80 81 80 82 78 73 69 61 52 35 31 24 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 80 81 80 51 34 29 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 81 82 82 84 54 35 29 35 38 36 31 29 32 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 19 17 16 14 13 11 16 25 43 58 79 69 48 39 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 3 0 0 -1 3 6 9 16 18 4 5 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 286 286 289 287 278 280 249 270 217 219 227 242 251 246 247 239 224 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 28.5 27.1 23.8 22.1 15.6 12.2 12.6 10.1 10.1 10.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 155 159 159 159 166 147 130 103 95 77 72 71 69 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 141 143 141 141 147 132 119 95 89 74 70 69 67 66 66 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -52.5 -52.3 -53.3 -52.6 -50.5 -47.3 -44.9 -44.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 2.1 2.8 3.4 3.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 7 8 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 66 67 70 68 71 70 60 48 38 32 40 48 46 47 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 26 27 26 28 25 22 22 23 23 19 24 24 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 90 71 60 58 47 26 45 21 3 22 93 113 109 164 225 273 262 200 MB DIV 28 6 23 39 25 51 32 26 92 111 78 74 68 54 42 50 25 700-850 TADV 25 22 21 27 20 8 13 1 -20 -36 4 48 158 -97 -38 -41 -12 LAND (KM) 98 189 296 383 335 93 -134 -119 -42 278 276 244 502 1059 1448 1032 775 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.7 24.7 25.8 26.8 29.0 31.3 33.5 35.9 38.5 41.4 44.6 47.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.5 85.8 86.0 86.2 85.8 84.2 81.4 77.2 71.3 63.7 54.6 46.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 12 14 19 24 30 35 35 31 27 23 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 59 34 30 38 36 26 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -15. -21. -25. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -4. -10. -18. -27. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -5. -10. -11. -11. -12. -18. -12. -11. -11. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 7. 3. -2. -6. -14. -23. -40. -44. -51. -57. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.7 85.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 19.8% 12.1% 10.8% 8.2% 9.6% 9.8% 8.2% Logistic: 11.2% 21.8% 13.9% 12.0% 7.2% 10.7% 13.6% 3.1% Bayesian: 5.2% 10.6% 2.5% 3.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.1% 17.4% 9.5% 8.8% 5.7% 6.9% 7.8% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 7( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 80 80 81 80 51 34 29 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 76 76 77 76 47 30 25 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 72 71 42 25 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 65 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT