* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 78 76 72 65 59 51 40 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 75 78 76 72 65 59 51 40 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 74 73 72 71 64 57 49 39 30 22 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 9 10 14 11 22 31 37 47 47 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 6 7 6 11 7 3 4 0 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 145 50 348 327 317 294 243 234 232 236 241 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.0 23.1 23.4 28.7 28.6 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 131 129 127 125 115 96 100 155 155 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -50.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 3 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 55 54 52 51 51 47 45 40 45 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 36 39 38 39 37 36 34 31 23 10 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 76 76 79 86 63 53 55 72 46 67 26 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 83 61 44 22 9 34 55 37 60 28 29 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 5 10 16 3 11 -5 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1953 1906 1859 1786 1713 1502 1217 886 519 102 -66 -523 -911 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.0 18.0 19.5 21.4 23.6 26.2 28.8 31.6 34.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.3 128.0 127.5 126.9 125.1 122.8 120.3 117.6 114.5 111.0 107.1 103.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 8 12 14 16 18 20 21 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 10 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 16 16 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -13. -20. -28. -30. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -7. -18. -33. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 3. 1. -3. -10. -15. -24. -35. -51. -71. -65. -68. -71. -75. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.5 128.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.27 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 22.6% 22.2% 16.6% 13.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 8.3% 7.7% 5.7% 4.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##