* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 46 47 49 50 53 57 58 58 57 56 57 46 34 30 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 46 47 49 50 53 57 58 58 57 56 57 46 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 45 46 47 48 49 52 56 58 59 54 48 38 27 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 12 12 18 13 3 3 11 17 23 26 60 49 44 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 10 8 12 6 10 5 6 3 2 1 12 0 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 309 330 282 260 257 246 268 283 241 187 223 256 305 321 342 355 349 SST (C) 23.9 24.1 23.6 23.9 24.7 24.9 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.5 24.9 24.8 24.4 24.0 23.6 23.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 98 99 96 98 103 104 109 110 111 111 107 106 101 97 94 92 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 86 84 86 90 91 95 95 98 100 97 95 88 84 81 80 80 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9 -54.2 -54.5 -55.4 -55.6 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 4 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 36 33 31 32 31 36 43 46 51 52 37 39 40 38 40 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 30 31 30 32 32 32 31 31 33 39 35 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 21 48 54 68 66 42 9 -8 -55 -41 -18 39 -16 -11 -42 -74 -69 200 MB DIV -27 -10 23 18 -6 -19 -36 2 -11 29 14 25 19 -36 -52 -46 -44 700-850 TADV 8 4 4 -1 1 -5 2 2 9 1 15 -33 -61 -68 -59 -16 -24 LAND (KM) 1303 1392 1486 1601 1719 1953 2143 2291 2198 1944 1635 1312 1092 950 836 746 639 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 35.0 34.4 33.7 32.9 31.3 30.0 29.1 29.0 29.6 30.5 31.4 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.5 47.3 46.2 45.1 44.0 42.2 40.8 39.5 37.4 34.4 30.6 26.4 23.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 10 8 8 11 15 18 16 11 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. -4. -11. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 1. 8. 2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 12. 1. -11. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.5 48.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 372.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.6% 8.8% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 2.7% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.1% 3.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 46 47 49 50 53 57 58 58 57 56 57 46 34 30 18HR AGO 45 44 44 46 47 49 50 53 57 58 58 57 56 57 46 34 30 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 46 47 50 54 55 55 54 53 54 43 31 27 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 39 42 46 47 47 46 45 46 35 23 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT