* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 77 76 74 72 69 66 62 54 45 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 77 76 74 72 69 66 62 54 45 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 75 74 73 69 63 57 47 38 30 21 19 24 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 6 6 7 9 17 17 25 27 35 48 54 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 3 6 9 10 8 11 2 6 4 12 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 53 35 38 58 317 317 311 271 247 244 234 237 242 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.4 25.7 23.9 23.3 24.2 29.0 28.2 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 138 136 130 128 128 122 104 97 107 156 148 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -50.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.1 -49.8 -49.1 -48.9 -49.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 6 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 58 57 55 52 48 48 44 41 37 35 37 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 37 41 40 38 39 40 40 39 35 33 25 11 10 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 85 75 80 82 72 70 44 37 61 57 63 92 88 69 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 40 14 18 5 26 44 18 48 38 16 23 16 10 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 5 15 11 2 0 -17 5 25 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1960 1957 1954 1922 1890 1751 1560 1326 1049 726 376 19 -36 -325 -588 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.9 17.9 19.1 20.6 22.5 24.6 26.8 28.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.8 128.1 128.3 128.3 128.2 127.3 125.8 123.9 121.7 119.3 116.7 114.0 111.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 4 5 7 10 12 14 15 16 16 14 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 13 11 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 20 12 14 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -24. -24. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -13. -21. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -9. -19. -33. -31. -27. -25. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -26. -35. -50. -71. -77. -81. -84. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.8 127.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 -1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 19.7% 12.7% 12.2% 10.0% 10.9% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.1% 4.4% 4.1% 3.3% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##