* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 73 80 83 83 83 76 73 68 61 51 31 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 73 80 83 83 66 40 32 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 69 74 80 83 86 71 41 32 36 39 37 31 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 18 12 13 16 14 12 11 16 11 30 62 67 74 66 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 1 1 4 0 -1 3 1 6 7 6 14 10 16 17 SHEAR DIR 279 284 286 297 300 306 301 307 273 287 257 222 239 233 230 241 250 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.9 28.4 27.4 25.1 23.4 18.9 12.1 15.3 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 163 161 157 160 159 169 146 134 112 100 82 73 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 148 148 146 141 143 141 151 131 123 103 92 78 71 73 70 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -50.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.8 -51.8 -50.0 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 6 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 66 66 66 69 69 67 54 40 33 27 36 40 45 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 24 27 27 27 27 27 25 25 25 25 26 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 76 83 72 69 73 63 40 19 52 13 8 41 142 204 165 129 121 200 MB DIV 54 25 40 55 31 31 5 41 49 19 86 68 46 69 52 51 35 700-850 TADV 4 8 10 10 12 24 19 6 19 12 6 1 47 47 7 67 87 LAND (KM) 198 160 93 68 121 282 357 145 -67 -37 -10 340 335 364 316 945 1424 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.6 24.4 26.3 28.4 30.6 32.8 35.3 37.9 40.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.4 85.3 85.3 85.5 85.6 86.0 86.0 85.4 83.8 81.1 76.8 71.0 64.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 12 14 19 24 28 29 31 33 33 31 HEAT CONTENT 89 105 118 84 41 30 41 27 5 8 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. 15. 11. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -8. -17. -28. -36. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. 2. 0. 1. 1. -8. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 30. 33. 33. 33. 27. 23. 18. 11. 1. -19. -30. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.8 85.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.47 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 87.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.54 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.1% 36.3% 24.7% 16.8% 8.5% 13.4% 19.9% 15.5% Logistic: 7.7% 23.5% 13.7% 4.8% 1.6% 5.2% 7.9% 23.1% Bayesian: 4.2% 8.6% 1.8% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% Consensus: 10.0% 22.8% 13.4% 7.8% 3.6% 6.3% 9.3% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 62 67 73 80 83 83 66 40 32 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 55 60 66 73 76 76 59 33 25 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 57 64 67 67 50 24 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 46 53 56 56 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT