* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 45 47 47 49 52 57 58 57 55 55 53 36 32 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 45 47 47 49 52 57 58 57 55 55 53 36 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 43 44 47 48 48 51 56 58 58 56 53 45 34 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 2 5 13 15 15 2 0 3 12 17 7 18 21 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 11 8 8 13 10 11 10 5 0 -5 11 8 3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 316 305 305 261 246 249 238 302 348 70 219 230 300 345 360 4 22 SST (C) 24.4 24.4 24.5 23.8 24.2 24.3 25.2 25.8 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.2 24.5 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 102 97 100 100 107 112 113 111 108 105 104 102 98 99 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 87 88 86 88 88 93 97 100 99 96 94 92 88 84 86 84 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -55.4 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 4 2 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 37 37 35 32 32 32 32 41 44 47 49 47 36 35 39 33 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 27 28 30 29 30 31 32 31 30 28 29 29 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR 14 19 52 58 65 62 35 15 -4 -37 -41 -14 35 -5 -56 -36 -13 200 MB DIV -17 -17 11 13 -10 4 -40 -6 0 13 31 7 4 -58 -6 -65 -43 700-850 TADV 10 11 6 4 -2 -3 -5 -2 5 3 5 -3 -26 -38 -50 -18 -14 LAND (KM) 1233 1308 1389 1496 1607 1842 2070 2272 2205 1946 1708 1474 1263 1082 926 803 678 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 35.5 35.0 34.4 33.7 32.2 30.6 29.2 28.6 28.7 29.3 30.2 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.7 48.5 47.3 46.0 44.8 42.7 41.1 39.7 37.6 34.8 31.9 28.9 26.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 11 13 13 13 12 9 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -7. -8. -24. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 13. 12. 10. 10. 8. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.9 49.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.87 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.0% 9.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.2% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.1% 3.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 43 45 47 47 49 52 57 58 57 55 55 53 36 32 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 45 47 47 49 52 57 58 57 55 55 53 36 32 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 43 45 45 47 50 55 56 55 53 53 51 34 30 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 39 41 44 49 50 49 47 47 45 28 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT