* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 78 78 77 76 72 70 66 62 54 40 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 78 78 77 76 72 70 66 62 54 40 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 78 76 75 71 66 60 53 45 36 27 18 20 25 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 11 8 7 11 16 13 18 21 28 35 41 50 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 8 8 7 14 9 6 7 12 18 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 50 43 39 55 347 322 316 305 256 246 232 238 237 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.2 26.5 26.5 26.0 25.5 23.5 24.0 26.5 28.4 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 139 139 134 128 129 124 120 99 105 130 150 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.2 -49.9 -49.8 -49.2 -48.9 -48.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 57 56 54 52 49 48 42 38 34 32 29 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 40 39 41 40 42 41 41 40 38 35 28 17 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 89 86 79 82 80 77 69 55 58 77 59 74 62 75 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 67 29 -15 -5 -1 47 33 37 25 8 0 18 11 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 10 11 12 -1 -12 -9 16 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1936 1953 1965 1951 1938 1836 1675 1471 1215 937 608 247 -67 -102 -367 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.6 21.2 23.1 25.3 27.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.7 128.1 128.2 128.3 127.8 126.6 124.9 122.9 120.8 118.3 115.6 113.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 6 8 10 12 14 16 16 14 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 11 12 13 13 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 13 14 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -30. -29. -30. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -2. -6. -16. -27. -33. -31. -29. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -13. -15. -18. -23. -31. -45. -63. -74. -80. -81. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.6 127.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 455.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 -1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 16.5% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.8% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##