* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142018 10/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 46 51 58 64 66 72 68 64 63 51 36 35 34 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 46 51 58 64 66 50 34 29 31 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 38 41 44 46 49 54 42 31 28 30 28 25 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 16 20 16 18 16 8 9 12 18 24 40 58 67 68 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 2 4 8 4 3 4 5 SHEAR DIR 293 277 261 275 282 293 307 272 268 234 250 232 233 247 252 246 259 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.5 28.5 27.3 25.2 23.9 24.7 15.6 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 154 149 158 164 160 158 162 147 132 112 104 111 78 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 145 139 135 142 146 142 139 144 132 119 103 97 105 76 74 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -52.2 -54.3 -53.7 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 9 9 8 10 8 9 8 9 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 63 62 61 62 64 67 66 51 34 28 19 26 29 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 18 22 25 25 27 27 26 29 25 22 23 19 13 19 27 850 MB ENV VOR 73 69 75 84 85 77 56 45 29 39 23 25 42 30 -20 86 231 200 MB DIV 53 46 46 50 66 43 35 27 60 59 51 54 63 3 14 18 30 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 13 16 15 24 20 4 15 2 12 -16 50 -42 -157 -68 LAND (KM) 64 70 72 31 38 189 374 315 147 -110 -129 -80 240 412 493 571 1293 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.9 21.6 23.2 24.9 26.8 28.8 31.0 33.3 35.8 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.9 86.8 86.6 86.6 86.6 86.9 87.2 87.2 86.4 84.7 81.9 77.9 72.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 12 15 19 23 27 32 38 40 38 HEAT CONTENT 49 51 52 43 31 28 82 40 26 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. 30. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -7. -16. -26. -35. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 10. 13. 8. 4. 4. -3. -10. -3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 16. 21. 28. 34. 36. 42. 38. 34. 33. 21. 6. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.0 86.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.74 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.8% 9.9% 6.4% 5.5% 8.1% 10.5% 14.9% Logistic: 7.2% 18.4% 10.3% 3.6% 1.1% 7.0% 8.2% 21.2% Bayesian: 2.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% Consensus: 5.2% 12.0% 7.1% 3.7% 2.2% 5.1% 6.4% 12.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 42 46 51 58 64 66 50 34 29 31 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 41 46 53 59 61 45 29 24 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 40 47 53 55 39 23 18 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 36 42 44 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT