* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 91 88 85 82 80 76 75 72 65 57 45 28 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 95 91 88 85 82 80 76 75 72 65 57 41 32 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 96 92 89 87 83 76 69 61 54 45 37 28 24 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 17 14 7 9 13 14 16 19 26 40 47 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 -1 1 6 6 10 6 8 9 9 8 7 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 61 59 59 54 22 333 321 314 283 238 237 240 233 234 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 26.8 26.5 26.5 25.8 23.9 23.4 24.9 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 137 137 136 130 128 129 123 104 99 115 148 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.5 -50.1 -49.6 -49.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 63 61 61 61 59 56 54 51 48 41 43 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 40 40 39 40 41 42 40 41 41 38 35 30 19 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 91 88 83 76 68 65 64 56 45 48 62 58 72 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 58 55 15 -17 20 20 51 32 46 49 11 2 5 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 7 14 13 -2 0 -35 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1818 1852 1887 1898 1907 1855 1739 1578 1360 1083 759 381 -25 -186 -550 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.5 18.7 20.2 22.1 24.4 27.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.3 126.8 127.1 127.4 127.5 126.8 125.6 123.9 121.7 119.3 116.5 113.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 7 9 11 14 16 18 19 20 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 9 11 10 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 7 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -15. -22. -28. -33. -38. -42. -45. -45. -45. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 2. 2. -2. -5. -11. -22. -32. -30. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -24. -24. -28. -35. -43. -55. -72. -90. -91. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.5 125.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 -1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 10.9% 6.6% 5.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.1% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##