* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 34 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 34 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 39 33 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 23 26 33 40 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 11 12 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 207 194 187 197 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 21.4 19.3 16.5 15.0 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 82 68 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 40 33 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 14 12 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 31 -25 -52 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 70 76 63 50 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -20 19 -21 -53 -105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1520 1751 1700 1380 1100 750 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.2 37.8 40.4 43.4 46.4 52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.5 162.3 160.1 157.3 154.6 149.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 31 34 36 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 21 CX,CY: 13/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. -18. -22. -27. -31. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 3. -8. -28. -48. -63. -68. -73. -80. -90.-105.-114. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 18. 17. 13. 8. -1. -6. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -16. -28. -40. -53. -70. -88.-105.-118.-134.-157.-180.-206.-225. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.2 164.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.4 62.3 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##