* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 45 41 39 39 40 39 35 33 30 31 32 29 23 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 45 41 39 39 40 39 35 33 30 31 32 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 47 46 44 44 46 48 47 43 39 34 32 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 2 8 10 7 10 9 18 24 35 26 30 20 18 10 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 15 10 7 4 4 4 7 6 4 0 -2 1 0 3 8 21 SHEAR DIR 357 341 315 341 11 276 277 253 253 254 267 261 271 267 261 239 212 SST (C) 25.7 24.6 24.7 24.3 24.1 24.0 23.6 23.8 24.1 25.3 25.3 25.7 25.2 24.9 24.8 23.1 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 110 101 102 100 98 98 96 97 100 108 108 111 108 106 107 96 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 86 86 85 84 85 84 86 88 95 95 98 95 96 97 88 80 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.8 -55.9 -57.3 -57.4 -57.8 -57.6 -57.4 -55.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 40 40 40 40 42 42 44 36 28 21 19 22 25 27 35 38 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 30 30 30 27 27 27 28 28 25 22 20 18 15 11 6 850 MB ENV VOR 58 54 47 41 50 22 52 59 82 80 31 -60 -93 -80 -15 110 148 200 MB DIV -5 8 21 -4 10 -9 -9 13 0 1 -56 -69 -18 13 53 75 24 700-850 TADV 13 15 13 21 14 8 12 -12 -11 -47 -44 -35 3 -2 7 -16 -42 LAND (KM) 928 972 1001 1022 1050 1164 1328 1546 1787 2043 2183 1921 1692 1511 1317 1091 663 LAT (DEG N) 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.5 37.3 36.6 35.7 34.5 33.2 31.8 30.6 29.7 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.3 55.2 54.1 53.0 51.8 49.4 46.9 44.3 41.7 39.2 36.6 34.1 31.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 12 16 19 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -18. -22. -26. -28. -31. -34. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -9. -11. -11. -10. -11. -15. -17. -20. -19. -18. -21. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.7 56.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.0% 9.5% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.4% 3.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 45 45 41 39 39 40 39 35 33 30 31 32 29 23 18HR AGO 50 49 47 45 45 41 39 39 40 39 35 33 30 31 32 29 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 44 40 38 38 39 38 34 32 29 30 31 28 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 36 34 34 35 34 30 28 25 26 27 24 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT