* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 44 41 35 34 36 36 35 36 32 30 30 26 18 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 44 41 35 34 36 36 35 36 32 30 30 26 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 46 45 43 41 42 45 47 46 43 39 36 34 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 5 7 12 5 13 13 20 26 29 25 34 24 26 45 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 11 11 5 8 1 3 -1 0 0 -1 -7 -3 0 14 23 SHEAR DIR 350 15 47 341 353 176 278 251 254 246 263 255 266 254 264 227 200 SST (C) 26.1 25.3 24.7 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.9 23.6 24.2 24.0 25.0 25.8 25.7 25.4 25.3 23.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 113 106 102 101 99 96 97 95 99 98 105 111 110 110 111 102 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 89 86 86 84 83 84 83 87 86 91 96 96 98 102 94 85 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -55.5 -56.8 -57.7 -57.6 -57.8 -57.5 -55.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 40 41 40 39 41 41 43 38 30 22 20 25 29 34 43 47 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 31 29 30 29 25 25 27 27 26 26 24 22 20 17 12 850 MB ENV VOR 56 60 47 37 37 31 33 45 64 70 -38 -79 -105 -77 -30 115 173 200 MB DIV -30 8 5 11 13 9 -20 12 17 -17 -96 -34 -38 -9 33 35 87 700-850 TADV 5 9 13 10 24 11 3 0 -13 -26 -34 -29 -6 7 -16 -74 -77 LAND (KM) 980 1000 1025 1067 1078 1149 1281 1451 1650 1873 2077 2240 2201 2054 1819 1563 1091 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.1 37.0 36.5 35.7 34.7 33.5 32.1 30.8 29.9 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.9 56.0 55.1 54.1 53.0 50.8 48.5 46.3 44.2 42.2 40.5 38.9 37.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 9 14 22 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -12. -14. -13. -15. -17. -18. -22. -24. -26. -29. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -15. -16. -14. -14. -15. -14. -18. -20. -20. -24. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.0 56.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.71 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.7% 9.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.1% 3.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 45 44 41 35 34 36 36 35 36 32 30 30 26 18 18HR AGO 50 49 47 45 44 41 35 34 36 36 35 36 32 30 30 26 18 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 43 40 34 33 35 35 34 35 31 29 29 25 17 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 36 30 29 31 31 30 31 27 25 25 21 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT