* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 34 33 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 34 33 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 35 32 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 16 26 37 55 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 7 8 5 14 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 305 240 214 198 197 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.5 22.5 21.6 20.0 15.2 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 100 91 83 68 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 46 42 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 22 21 21 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 68 64 50 57 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 58 50 58 79 48 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -21 -37 -49 -48 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1361 1436 1530 1713 1822 1128 661 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 33.3 34.7 37.1 39.4 45.7 52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.2 167.2 166.2 164.4 162.6 157.2 151.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 16 22 28 32 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 982 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 2. -10. -30. -50. -65. -71. -76. -83. -93.-108.-117. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 13. 12. 9. 6. -0. -4. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 7. 6. 5. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -12. -23. -29. -41. -57. -76. -92.-103.-116.-138.-159.-184.-203. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.9 168.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##