* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 46 45 45 42 37 38 38 41 46 46 47 51 50 48 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 46 45 45 42 37 38 38 41 46 46 47 51 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 48 48 48 46 44 44 46 49 53 56 57 58 58 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 12 12 14 13 17 5 10 4 5 12 14 16 15 20 25 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 5 6 3 4 7 5 3 6 1 6 1 3 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 322 336 10 32 21 340 352 319 298 245 213 237 222 244 205 232 227 SST (C) 25.3 25.4 25.7 26.0 25.4 24.1 24.0 24.3 24.7 24.6 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 109 112 107 98 97 99 103 102 106 106 106 110 108 107 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 87 89 92 89 84 83 85 88 88 91 92 93 97 97 96 93 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -55.6 -55.7 -55.6 -54.9 -55.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 44 41 42 42 42 40 42 46 40 37 34 34 40 43 50 51 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 33 32 31 30 31 30 28 28 26 26 28 28 28 32 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 83 67 62 63 47 30 18 13 23 28 41 21 19 -34 7 45 68 200 MB DIV -13 -27 -32 -16 -13 29 -28 -12 -4 -15 -2 -46 -8 -15 11 26 38 700-850 TADV 1 0 5 9 7 20 4 6 0 3 -9 -1 -4 7 -14 -11 -100 LAND (KM) 1027 1022 1005 1021 1041 1145 1214 1307 1440 1599 1758 1909 2016 2112 2103 1833 1581 LAT (DEG N) 36.1 36.4 36.6 36.7 36.7 36.4 35.8 35.1 34.2 33.2 32.2 31.3 31.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.3 57.9 57.5 56.8 56.0 54.1 52.2 50.5 48.6 46.6 44.9 43.3 41.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 10 9 8 9 10 14 16 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -12. -12. -16. -18. -16. -16. -16. -12. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -13. -12. -12. -9. -4. -4. -3. 1. 0. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.1 58.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 413.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.6% 7.6% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.3% 3.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 46 45 45 42 37 38 38 41 46 46 47 51 50 48 18HR AGO 50 49 48 46 45 45 42 37 38 38 41 46 46 47 51 50 48 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 43 43 40 35 36 36 39 44 44 45 49 48 46 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 39 36 31 32 32 35 40 40 41 45 44 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT