* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 43 40 38 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 49 43 40 38 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 41 38 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 12 12 22 39 51 76 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 5 10 20 8 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 334 311 247 222 191 200 236 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.9 23.6 22.9 22.4 19.4 15.0 12.8 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 100 94 90 68 69 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 52 53 50 47 37 24 29 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 21 21 23 20 15 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 81 75 65 55 38 -35 0 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 31 53 48 63 58 39 6 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -9 1 25 23 -69 -97 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1282 1325 1375 1461 1564 1713 1102 783 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.8 32.6 34.1 35.5 40.3 46.3 52.6 59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.3 167.8 167.3 166.1 164.9 161.0 155.0 147.9 140.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 14 18 23 33 38 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -19. -21. -23. -27. -31. -35. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -9. -31. -51. -66. -72. -77. -86. -96.-111.-120. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 15. 17. 16. 14. 9. 3. -1. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -10. -12. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -15. -17. -27. -39. -47. -70. -89.-105.-116.-130.-150.-169.-193.-207. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.9 168.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 336.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##