* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 99 99 96 92 91 91 92 88 86 84 81 75 68 57 35 V (KT) LAND 105 101 99 99 96 92 91 91 92 88 86 84 81 75 68 57 35 V (KT) LGEM 105 99 95 92 89 84 80 79 76 71 66 64 62 58 52 41 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 8 9 10 14 13 12 11 6 14 15 17 22 27 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 3 3 1 4 8 8 7 7 4 6 5 6 7 SHEAR DIR 299 349 19 39 12 49 59 55 43 24 9 311 308 289 258 240 245 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.8 26.1 25.6 24.4 23.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 133 132 133 132 133 133 130 127 127 131 124 120 108 100 96 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 67 65 63 64 60 55 52 51 44 39 37 33 30 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 38 41 41 42 44 44 44 43 42 42 42 40 38 32 16 850 MB ENV VOR 44 38 43 56 59 65 92 108 107 103 111 114 121 110 101 85 51 200 MB DIV 60 53 49 34 -1 8 30 46 39 57 58 27 27 25 33 25 -9 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 2 2 -15 -5 LAND (KM) 1327 1366 1406 1459 1514 1617 1708 1768 1761 1697 1581 1412 1230 1042 779 452 126 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.1 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.4 122.0 122.6 123.2 124.4 125.5 126.5 127.0 126.9 126.3 125.1 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 6 8 8 11 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 3 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -26. -32. -37. -41. -44. -46. -48. -51. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 8. 9. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -4. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -9. -13. -14. -14. -13. -17. -19. -21. -24. -30. -37. -48. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.9 120.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.4% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##