* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 44 41 43 41 44 41 41 40 39 41 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 44 41 43 41 44 41 41 40 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 53 53 54 53 49 48 49 50 53 52 51 51 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 7 9 9 13 4 8 10 11 20 19 21 30 42 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 3 3 5 8 5 5 4 1 7 4 7 0 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 355 38 281 338 9 354 343 288 300 275 252 229 247 228 250 229 252 SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.2 25.2 24.7 24.2 24.1 24.0 23.6 24.0 24.2 25.2 25.5 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 109 106 107 108 113 105 102 99 98 98 95 97 98 106 109 105 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 89 88 89 92 88 86 85 85 84 82 84 85 91 94 91 92 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -55.4 -55.9 -56.2 -56.0 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 51 51 46 42 40 38 37 41 46 41 37 34 31 38 44 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 36 35 34 33 32 32 30 28 28 27 28 27 27 28 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 94 86 74 71 66 55 37 22 15 47 52 46 27 13 54 102 20 200 MB DIV -14 7 4 -6 -3 -1 30 -23 -4 -20 -4 -10 -20 3 32 3 -15 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 9 15 23 -5 2 -1 -1 -11 -7 -17 6 -39 -102 LAND (KM) 1087 1020 953 931 910 943 1022 1085 1207 1360 1517 1660 1823 1999 2120 2172 2051 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.2 36.9 37.2 37.5 37.7 37.5 37.0 36.2 35.3 34.4 33.6 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.2 58.3 58.3 57.9 57.5 55.9 53.9 51.6 49.4 47.2 45.3 43.7 42.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 5 4 5 7 8 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 14 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 2. -0. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -17. -21. -20. -21. -21. -20. -20. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -11. -14. -12. -14. -11. -14. -14. -15. -16. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 35.5 58.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.92 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 400.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.4% 8.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.8% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 44 41 43 41 44 41 41 40 39 41 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 44 41 43 41 44 41 41 40 39 41 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 48 47 42 39 41 39 42 39 39 38 37 39 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 43 42 37 34 36 34 37 34 34 33 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT