* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 116 112 109 103 95 89 89 86 84 81 77 73 70 67 63 56 V (KT) LAND 120 116 112 109 103 95 89 89 86 84 81 77 73 70 67 63 56 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 109 103 98 88 82 80 76 71 67 62 59 57 54 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 3 4 4 8 9 11 14 11 13 10 14 11 14 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 1 5 5 0 3 5 6 6 3 7 3 8 9 SHEAR DIR 290 267 286 301 348 360 19 47 49 37 19 359 309 309 311 284 245 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.8 26.1 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 136 133 134 130 131 130 128 125 123 122 119 123 115 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 70 68 66 64 62 61 57 55 49 44 40 36 25 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 37 40 38 40 43 45 45 45 45 43 42 41 41 39 35 850 MB ENV VOR 58 65 62 48 53 63 70 83 97 95 97 105 128 126 144 159 89 200 MB DIV 92 95 37 18 22 -11 27 25 47 50 55 38 49 65 32 4 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 2 3 3 3 0 -1 -1 1 2 3 4 7 2 6 -4 LAND (KM) 1302 1316 1335 1369 1406 1514 1627 1735 1803 1829 1803 1719 1627 1512 1366 1183 1001 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.9 17.7 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.3 120.9 121.5 122.1 123.4 124.7 125.9 127.0 127.7 128.0 127.7 127.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 3 3 4 5 5 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -27. -36. -44. -51. -56. -60. -62. -64. -66. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. -0. 1. 4. 8. 9. 8. 8. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -17. -25. -31. -31. -34. -36. -39. -43. -47. -50. -53. -57. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.3 119.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 4.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##