* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 72 62 54 48 41 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 72 62 54 48 41 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 73 64 56 50 40 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 7 8 9 7 14 23 41 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 4 2 2 0 10 7 16 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 193 291 322 318 213 201 207 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.5 24.6 23.9 23.5 21.6 17.5 13.9 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 110 103 100 83 68 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 57 57 59 55 52 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 29 28 25 23 21 16 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 89 72 49 60 38 6 -41 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -8 5 13 54 86 84 52 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 38 20 9 0 -22 -51 -110 -55 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 891 1027 1170 1276 1390 1690 1492 945 617 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 29.4 30.9 32.2 33.5 37.1 42.3 48.3 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.1 166.3 166.4 166.0 165.7 163.2 158.7 153.2 147.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 17 26 34 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 20 CX,CY: 2/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -25. -33. -41. -45. -50. -54. -58. -62. -66. -70. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. -2. -15. -25. -32. -35. -39. -45. -51. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -12. -22. -31. -32. -31. -29. -27. -24. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -23. -31. -37. -44. -55. -72. -94.-105.-115.-123.-132.-144.-157.-172.-182. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 27.9 166.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##