* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 87 75 66 60 50 42 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 87 75 66 60 50 42 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 88 77 68 60 49 41 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 13 10 7 9 4 14 37 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 22 15 2 1 1 7 12 19 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 230 202 293 334 303 188 193 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.4 25.6 24.9 24.3 23.0 20.7 16.9 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 121 113 107 96 74 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 58 57 57 59 48 38 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 31 28 27 24 24 21 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 105 93 84 58 65 14 -11 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 6 -1 16 15 76 93 57 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 40 30 17 13 0 -29 -35 -7 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 778 889 1017 1123 1236 1446 1810 1355 878 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 27.5 29.1 30.4 31.6 34.4 38.4 43.6 48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.5 166.5 166.5 166.5 166.4 164.8 161.7 157.7 153.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 12 14 19 27 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 19 CX,CY: 3/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -20. -30. -41. -51. -57. -62. -67. -70. -73. -77. -81. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. -3. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -32. -36. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -15. -24. -25. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -25. -34. -40. -50. -58. -73. -94.-101.-107.-113.-119.-127.-135.-144.-148. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 25.9 166.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 538.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##