* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 118 117 114 104 95 90 92 90 89 87 84 79 77 76 74 V (KT) LAND 120 121 118 117 114 104 95 90 92 90 89 87 84 79 77 76 74 V (KT) LGEM 120 120 117 112 106 94 85 79 75 73 71 68 66 64 64 62 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 8 5 2 5 6 12 15 13 11 9 3 6 7 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 -3 -2 4 6 2 1 1 3 2 1 5 3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 16 325 282 262 239 338 10 34 51 49 55 21 26 318 317 282 237 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.2 26.9 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.2 25.7 25.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 141 139 135 135 131 132 133 130 126 123 124 120 123 114 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 70 67 65 61 65 64 63 61 60 58 57 56 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 38 37 40 41 41 41 42 45 44 44 45 44 41 41 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 71 67 63 64 55 48 57 57 76 95 89 84 98 115 105 76 59 200 MB DIV 101 110 85 54 17 9 -28 7 49 60 46 43 61 64 45 24 19 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -1 0 2 4 0 0 -4 0 -2 0 1 3 1 5 LAND (KM) 1326 1329 1326 1337 1351 1421 1522 1641 1750 1834 1866 1857 1820 1736 1567 1306 1054 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.1 119.7 120.3 120.9 122.1 123.4 124.7 126.0 127.2 128.1 128.6 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 6 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 8 7 4 5 4 5 6 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -25. -34. -42. -49. -54. -58. -60. -61. -64. -67. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 8. 12. 11. 11. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -3. -6. -16. -25. -30. -28. -30. -31. -33. -36. -41. -43. -44. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.1 118.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.5% 18.6% 9.3% 8.7% 3.6% 3.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.7% 7.0% 3.1% 2.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##