* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 104 91 82 74 62 52 45 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 104 91 82 74 62 52 45 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 106 94 81 70 54 44 38 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 32 21 5 14 10 14 31 50 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 15 12 6 1 1 4 13 18 17 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 256 250 248 261 330 306 219 197 215 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.1 25.5 25.7 24.4 23.2 20.7 17.4 14.3 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 127 120 122 108 98 73 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.3 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 55 56 57 59 49 36 26 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 32 33 29 26 23 24 21 23 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 106 118 113 100 46 74 19 -4 -20 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 6 -19 3 -14 8 78 86 57 24 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 58 42 40 45 25 -3 -20 -25 12 -72 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 821 805 840 933 1047 1238 1443 1780 1445 972 650 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 24.0 25.8 27.4 29.0 31.4 34.3 38.1 42.8 48.5 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.2 167.8 167.3 167.2 167.1 166.8 165.0 162.0 157.5 151.9 146.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 16 14 14 19 26 32 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 17 CX,CY: 6/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -32. -45. -57. -67. -77. -82. -85. -88. -91. -95. -99. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -15. -15. -14. -11. -7. -8. -16. -30. -33. -38. -44. -50. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -9. -14. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -24. -33. -41. -53. -63. -70. -82. -95.-112.-120.-128.-139.-150.-160.-165. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 22.2 168.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 647.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##