* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 109 110 108 104 97 93 89 88 85 81 79 76 73 73 71 V (KT) LAND 110 110 109 110 108 104 97 93 89 88 85 81 79 76 73 73 71 V (KT) LGEM 110 111 110 107 104 96 90 83 76 70 67 65 64 63 63 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 9 3 1 1 9 9 14 9 16 15 13 8 4 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 0 0 6 9 4 4 2 0 -1 -2 5 5 4 SHEAR DIR 25 23 20 322 239 19 10 48 56 51 55 60 33 49 288 277 310 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.7 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 148 140 133 133 129 131 131 131 131 132 131 126 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 70 72 68 62 60 60 56 55 53 50 47 44 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 38 41 41 41 42 43 42 43 43 42 42 41 39 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 74 71 77 68 67 65 55 70 83 93 98 112 121 134 140 137 137 200 MB DIV 102 123 111 78 76 18 -16 -3 21 24 5 22 31 50 47 40 25 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -9 -6 -4 3 3 6 0 0 -3 0 1 3 3 6 8 LAND (KM) 1362 1360 1363 1372 1367 1387 1444 1532 1640 1751 1835 1912 1955 1940 1889 1784 1682 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.7 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.3 118.9 119.6 120.2 121.4 122.6 123.8 125.1 126.5 127.9 129.2 130.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 3 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 15 14 12 6 4 4 2 3 6 10 8 6 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -17. -25. -32. -38. -42. -45. -47. -48. -49. -52. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 0. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 6. 8. 7. 5. 6. 4. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -0. -2. -6. -13. -17. -21. -22. -25. -29. -31. -34. -37. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.0 117.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 20.1% 18.9% 14.9% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 16.0% 6.5% 5.4% 1.7% 3.8% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 11.8% 14.7% 7.4% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 16.9% 10.9% 8.2% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##