* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 112 101 90 80 68 55 47 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 112 101 90 80 68 55 47 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 113 102 89 77 57 46 39 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 25 29 32 20 5 15 9 26 40 43 55 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 15 15 13 10 4 1 10 14 13 7 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 243 251 253 240 269 335 250 202 201 215 257 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.2 25.5 25.4 24.1 23.3 21.1 17.9 15.3 13.3 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 137 128 120 118 105 98 77 67 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -54.2 -55.7 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 51 52 52 55 56 54 51 37 30 28 29 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 32 34 34 29 25 23 22 13 19 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 59 103 118 117 101 76 62 12 -125 -225 -149 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 111 82 8 -16 19 -1 38 60 46 42 14 -17 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 55 57 42 35 33 8 -5 13 15 -5 14 -12 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 909 836 810 854 934 1120 1245 1396 1706 1525 1151 957 363 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 22.3 24.0 25.7 27.3 29.8 31.8 34.1 37.5 42.1 46.6 50.9 55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.9 168.4 167.8 167.6 167.3 167.2 166.2 164.2 161.2 157.2 152.1 146.0 139.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 17 15 11 13 17 24 28 29 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 18 CX,CY: 6/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -20. -32. -44. -56. -67. -77. -86. -91. -93. -97.-101.-105. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -17. -19. -17. -13. -8. -7. -12. -18. -28. -41. -48. -54. -57. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. -0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -30. -21. -29. -26. -24. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -19. -30. -40. -52. -65. -73. -83.-108.-111.-135.-153.-162.-170.-179.-182. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 20.5 168.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 666.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##