* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 81 84 83 80 75 66 59 55 50 45 42 43 41 41 V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 81 84 83 80 75 66 59 55 50 45 42 43 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 82 82 76 69 67 65 62 60 59 56 53 51 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 3 5 16 12 5 4 11 10 11 9 11 8 11 13 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 0 -1 7 -3 -3 0 1 0 -1 3 9 16 12 1 11 SHEAR DIR 204 201 229 220 170 196 27 7 1 359 338 339 293 300 260 270 240 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.7 25.4 24.8 24.4 24.1 24.0 24.0 23.7 24.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 120 116 112 108 106 108 106 102 99 98 97 97 96 101 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 100 102 100 96 92 88 88 87 85 84 84 83 83 83 87 84 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -55.1 -55.7 -56.4 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 6 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 40 43 49 53 51 52 45 42 44 47 49 49 43 36 31 32 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 41 41 43 45 41 38 36 34 33 34 35 33 32 32 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 130 132 134 132 126 93 85 47 26 -16 -16 11 43 70 77 72 17 200 MB DIV 30 36 35 67 66 4 13 -8 7 13 8 11 -11 2 1 -9 1 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 5 6 3 1 -1 4 10 11 12 13 6 -5 -19 -1 LAND (KM) 1541 1589 1614 1522 1431 1230 1111 1062 1048 1085 1111 1148 1218 1335 1455 1595 1751 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.2 30.7 31.6 32.5 34.5 35.7 36.3 36.7 36.8 36.7 36.5 36.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.9 56.9 56.9 57.0 57.0 57.2 57.1 56.6 55.8 54.6 53.0 50.9 48.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 9 9 8 5 4 4 6 7 8 8 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -29. -32. -36. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -16. -18. -17. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 13. 10. 5. -4. -11. -15. -20. -25. -28. -27. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.6 56.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.73 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 17.5% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 7.7% 5.0% 1.4% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 8.7% 5.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 9( 18) 9( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 78 81 84 83 80 75 66 59 55 50 45 42 43 41 41 18HR AGO 70 69 73 76 79 78 75 70 61 54 50 45 40 37 38 36 36 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 72 71 68 63 54 47 43 38 33 30 31 29 29 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 63 62 59 54 45 38 34 29 24 21 22 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT