* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 111 110 108 102 98 96 93 90 87 82 81 77 75 73 71 V (KT) LAND 110 111 111 110 108 102 98 96 93 90 87 82 81 77 75 73 71 V (KT) LGEM 110 111 110 107 104 98 93 88 81 74 71 68 68 68 68 68 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 10 3 7 3 5 11 15 15 17 12 8 5 1 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -1 0 -5 5 11 8 0 -2 0 -1 0 1 7 5 SHEAR DIR 41 30 15 5 286 109 327 40 43 58 39 46 55 46 8 350 275 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.0 27.2 27.2 26.7 26.7 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 150 143 134 135 129 130 132 131 132 131 130 130 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -50.4 -51.3 -50.2 -50.4 -49.6 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 74 70 73 72 73 66 62 60 58 53 52 48 48 47 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 38 38 38 37 40 42 41 42 42 41 42 40 39 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 73 77 67 72 65 78 88 112 120 117 122 123 130 129 113 200 MB DIV 104 114 89 92 68 61 11 0 -9 11 -9 25 47 41 2 58 33 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -7 -11 -7 -1 3 4 3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 1363 1359 1362 1362 1367 1369 1413 1492 1592 1713 1813 1904 1963 1980 1947 1854 1764 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.7 118.4 119.0 119.6 120.9 122.1 123.4 124.7 126.2 127.7 129.2 130.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 15 14 8 3 4 2 2 5 10 8 6 5 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -24. -32. -38. -42. -45. -46. -47. -49. -52. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -6. -5. -1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 2. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -2. -8. -12. -14. -17. -19. -23. -28. -29. -33. -35. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 12.6 117.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 19.9% 17.1% 13.2% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.3% 32.3% 11.2% 9.6% 4.3% 4.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.6% 15.3% 8.1% 5.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.2% 22.5% 12.2% 9.6% 5.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##