* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 75 83 83 81 77 69 62 54 51 49 47 49 47 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 75 83 83 81 77 69 62 54 51 49 47 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 66 70 75 79 74 69 67 63 58 52 49 49 50 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 11 12 8 17 6 3 6 9 9 7 8 14 17 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 2 2 5 -2 -2 1 2 9 2 3 3 15 8 8 SHEAR DIR 199 211 224 212 217 180 188 342 30 42 32 182 283 265 248 245 256 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.8 25.0 24.7 24.1 24.1 24.3 23.6 24.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 119 119 120 111 108 106 110 103 101 97 98 100 95 100 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 96 99 100 101 95 92 88 90 86 85 83 83 85 82 86 84 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.7 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.9 -55.5 -56.0 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 4 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 40 43 43 46 52 54 54 46 42 42 38 38 43 36 34 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 38 40 40 44 41 39 38 35 33 31 30 29 29 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 142 136 135 135 134 133 106 116 76 54 23 -4 -1 21 41 39 44 200 MB DIV 0 11 31 25 41 83 12 26 5 25 0 1 -1 -16 -1 -21 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 5 5 5 2 2 10 8 1 12 7 0 -20 -7 LAND (KM) 1547 1545 1543 1589 1595 1417 1245 1111 1044 1060 1089 1093 1121 1177 1302 1467 1647 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.7 29.7 30.3 30.8 32.6 34.4 35.7 36.5 36.8 36.9 36.9 36.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.8 56.9 57.0 57.1 57.1 57.1 57.1 57.1 56.5 55.2 53.7 51.9 49.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 6 7 9 8 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 15 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 4. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -16. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 23. 21. 17. 9. 2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.6 56.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.1% 10.2% 7.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.2% 4.0% 2.8% 2.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 9( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 67 71 75 83 83 81 77 69 62 54 51 49 47 49 47 18HR AGO 60 59 63 67 71 79 79 77 73 65 58 50 47 45 43 45 43 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 64 72 72 70 66 58 51 43 40 38 36 38 36 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 62 62 60 56 48 41 33 30 28 26 28 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT