* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 101 96 89 76 71 68 61 54 51 41 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 107 101 96 89 76 71 68 61 54 51 41 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 106 99 92 84 69 55 46 40 37 35 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 25 22 34 12 13 8 9 14 14 26 56 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 9 15 8 3 0 -4 2 5 17 12 5 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 234 243 245 252 264 223 326 354 243 213 181 195 240 284 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 28.9 27.9 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.6 24.3 23.5 21.5 18.4 15.0 13.5 15.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 156 146 136 130 126 120 107 100 81 67 68 66 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.8 -53.9 -53.4 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.8 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 66 59 57 52 59 56 56 50 35 30 33 36 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 35 35 35 33 28 25 22 23 20 17 10 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 73 73 85 88 137 142 90 107 48 30 -40 -103 -39 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 156 137 139 137 86 -6 29 18 73 49 77 56 50 -20 -55 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 16 29 39 52 59 21 -3 2 -16 -42 -16 -20 -44 -31 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1224 1125 1041 942 872 864 977 1126 1254 1397 1713 1532 1142 751 508 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 17.5 18.8 20.4 22.0 25.2 27.7 29.8 31.9 34.2 37.6 42.1 46.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.2 170.0 169.7 169.2 168.7 167.9 167.5 167.3 166.2 163.9 160.7 156.6 152.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 17 17 15 12 11 13 18 25 27 33 26 28 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 64 40 23 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -11. -21. -31. -40. -48. -57. -65. -71. -76. -82. -86. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -12. -18. -15. -10. -7. -4. -4. -6. -9. -20. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -3. -9. -14. -19. -18. -20. -22. -28. -29. -27. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -19. -26. -39. -44. -47. -54. -61. -64. -74. -88.-115.-140.-148.-153. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.1 170.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.04 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 10.7% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##