* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 72 77 84 91 90 85 81 74 63 60 56 57 56 53 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 72 77 84 91 90 85 81 74 63 60 56 57 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 71 76 82 83 76 70 67 63 58 55 55 56 56 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 10 14 11 14 5 5 8 8 10 5 7 20 39 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -2 -5 1 6 -1 -2 0 3 1 -2 5 5 9 7 SHEAR DIR 226 231 213 207 225 218 184 225 294 347 15 8 282 301 247 263 283 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 25.8 25.4 25.2 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.2 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 116 116 117 119 111 108 105 101 100 100 98 96 97 99 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 97 96 95 98 101 95 92 88 84 84 84 83 82 83 85 89 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.9 -56.0 -55.8 -54.8 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 6 4 5 5 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 40 39 41 44 45 51 56 55 49 48 50 46 45 44 33 24 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 35 37 39 41 44 43 40 39 38 34 34 33 35 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR 150 140 137 139 139 134 131 99 93 62 50 2 -9 17 68 88 -18 200 MB DIV 8 0 11 13 32 43 86 17 38 0 18 -1 -1 40 31 9 -62 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 2 7 8 5 4 12 6 6 14 4 -44 -84 LAND (KM) 1653 1618 1583 1581 1579 1592 1445 1257 1119 1081 1056 1075 1125 1192 1294 1445 1605 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.9 29.9 31.0 32.6 34.5 36.0 36.8 37.2 37.1 36.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.2 56.4 56.5 56.6 56.7 56.7 56.5 56.4 55.8 54.7 53.3 51.5 49.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 1 1 3 7 9 9 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 11 12 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -23. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 9. 5. 3. 1. -6. -6. -7. -5. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 31. 30. 25. 21. 14. 3. 0. -4. -3. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.4 56.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.62 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.1% 9.7% 7.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 5.4% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.7% 4.4% 2.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 9( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 67 72 77 84 91 90 85 81 74 63 60 56 57 56 53 18HR AGO 60 59 63 68 73 80 87 86 81 77 70 59 56 52 53 52 49 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 66 73 80 79 74 70 63 52 49 45 46 45 42 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 62 69 68 63 59 52 41 38 34 35 34 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT