* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 132 128 124 117 102 90 84 78 68 63 55 45 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 132 128 124 117 102 90 84 78 68 63 55 45 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 129 123 117 110 94 75 57 47 42 39 35 29 20 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 10 16 18 19 29 6 13 8 7 10 15 32 21 45 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 4 17 8 1 1 -1 5 9 18 14 11 17 4 SHEAR DIR 244 269 248 242 235 251 242 213 294 5 241 192 134 207 229 287 310 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.9 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.3 24.3 23.4 21.2 17.2 16.8 15.1 15.4 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 158 155 137 132 127 116 107 100 79 63 62 68 69 67 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.8 -53.6 -55.6 -54.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 71 70 69 67 56 54 62 59 58 47 41 36 30 34 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 36 37 37 38 38 33 29 27 25 24 23 19 13 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 69 69 66 76 75 102 140 121 69 54 24 19 -60 -40 -80 8 112 200 MB DIV 139 127 120 113 123 119 37 46 3 61 52 71 66 44 6 -42 -46 700-850 TADV 10 14 16 19 29 47 50 13 -2 -5 -19 -52 6 11 3 -49 -21 LAND (KM) 1333 1275 1224 1133 1054 873 851 992 1118 1204 1392 1775 1486 1386 1205 621 144 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 15.2 16.1 17.4 18.7 21.7 24.9 28.0 30.2 31.8 34.4 38.2 42.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 170.0 170.1 170.2 170.0 169.8 168.7 167.9 167.4 166.6 165.3 162.9 159.3 154.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 16 16 13 10 13 20 26 15 13 34 35 28 HEAT CONTENT 48 55 66 66 42 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -17. -29. -42. -53. -63. -73. -80. -87. -93. -99.-106.-113. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -8. -4. -1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -11. -15. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. -1. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -16. -20. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -18. -33. -45. -51. -57. -67. -72. -80. -90.-108.-125.-146.-170. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 14.2 170.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 430.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##