* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 77 81 89 94 96 96 94 93 87 83 80 78 75 76 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 77 81 89 94 96 96 94 93 87 83 80 78 75 76 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 70 73 78 84 89 93 93 90 84 79 76 74 74 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 19 24 25 16 10 2 4 1 3 6 7 9 4 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 1 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 60 74 67 45 39 34 19 100 123 285 40 45 57 49 92 27 19 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.3 27.6 27.4 26.6 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 148 146 148 146 139 137 129 129 124 123 121 122 125 131 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -53.3 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -50.2 -50.8 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 83 83 83 81 82 79 78 74 71 61 57 54 54 50 48 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 32 32 33 35 35 36 38 40 40 41 41 42 40 42 850 MB ENV VOR 31 45 58 66 76 73 78 74 88 73 94 99 109 106 111 116 121 200 MB DIV 133 126 115 113 105 110 110 110 87 7 -20 -47 -27 -25 -1 17 65 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -6 -4 -2 0 4 6 3 0 -2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1154 1221 1296 1353 1369 1366 1351 1357 1360 1398 1467 1559 1635 1719 1797 1855 1930 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.7 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.6 113.7 114.7 115.6 117.2 118.5 119.6 120.9 122.3 123.7 125.2 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 28 27 20 17 14 12 7 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 19. 18. 17. 15. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 21. 29. 34. 36. 36. 34. 33. 27. 23. 20. 18. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.1 111.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.10 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 34.2% 23.6% 17.3% 13.2% 16.6% 15.0% 14.5% Logistic: 9.9% 26.7% 6.4% 4.3% 1.5% 4.0% 4.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 4.2% 5.7% 4.2% 1.6% 0.2% 3.0% 2.3% 0.2% Consensus: 9.6% 22.2% 11.4% 7.7% 5.0% 7.9% 7.4% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##