* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 149 150 147 143 124 110 96 84 73 61 48 39 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 140 149 150 147 143 124 110 96 84 73 61 48 39 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 140 144 141 134 126 113 95 77 59 49 43 39 32 21 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 7 5 7 16 23 32 11 15 12 10 20 37 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 0 4 14 5 3 5 1 8 16 12 14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 272 251 244 249 241 257 257 251 312 315 249 176 185 206 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.8 24.4 23.5 21.2 18.7 14.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 154 151 150 152 149 136 133 126 122 108 101 77 67 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -50.6 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 6 4 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 73 72 68 58 52 56 54 57 47 37 32 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 36 38 40 39 44 41 37 32 28 24 24 16 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 85 79 75 85 98 115 157 152 92 91 38 19 -68 -123 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 173 127 109 141 177 154 139 49 12 41 44 39 76 45 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 13 15 19 26 47 60 17 4 19 14 56 0 -25 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1402 1378 1361 1301 1248 1080 913 865 963 1097 1216 1358 1767 1668 1028 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.3 18.8 21.9 25.0 27.6 29.6 31.6 33.8 38.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 169.6 170.1 170.5 170.5 170.6 170.1 169.1 168.0 167.4 167.1 166.0 164.0 160.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 14 16 14 12 11 12 20 19 27 40 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 45 51 58 68 37 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -19. -32. -44. -55. -65. -74. -81. -86. -91. -97.-101.-105. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -4. -1. -1. -1. -4. -11. -19. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 10. 13. 12. 10. 5. -1. -7. -10. -9. -9. -12. -14. -13. -13. -13. -11. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 9. 8. 4. -4. -9. -14. -12. -19. -26. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 10. 7. 3. -16. -30. -44. -56. -67. -79. -92.-101.-124.-150.-153.-153. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 12.9 169.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 145.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 45.6% 15.6% 17.6% 13.0% 5.7% 3.2% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 34.2% 2.7% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.6% 6.1% 6.5% 4.8% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##