* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 76 87 98 106 120 124 119 110 92 81 66 54 42 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 76 87 98 106 120 124 119 110 92 81 66 54 42 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 76 87 97 106 118 122 115 97 77 62 52 46 40 31 21 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 0 4 9 6 7 11 19 26 37 8 16 22 35 44 63 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -3 0 0 -2 6 13 1 1 0 10 10 8 15 9 SHEAR DIR 353 244 278 287 274 251 227 230 253 261 246 325 264 227 203 199 217 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.5 27.4 27.1 26.4 25.9 24.8 23.9 23.9 21.0 14.7 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 159 159 159 155 151 139 137 129 123 111 100 105 80 70 70 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -51.4 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -51.2 -51.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 71 71 72 71 70 63 56 51 52 53 51 46 45 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 28 30 30 35 37 38 41 38 35 30 26 24 16 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 85 82 82 80 76 63 78 98 124 159 147 111 94 9 -62 -121 -104 200 MB DIV 104 108 103 113 126 107 157 125 98 9 -9 10 33 45 42 34 29 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 4 9 11 18 29 64 61 11 3 11 1 18 21 -29 LAND (KM) 1264 1287 1318 1322 1331 1270 1137 997 930 970 1081 1206 1329 1216 1788 951 397 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.4 15.1 17.5 20.2 23.0 25.9 28.3 30.3 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.9 166.9 167.8 168.5 169.2 170.0 170.1 169.7 169.2 168.7 168.3 167.9 167.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 9 10 13 14 15 13 11 10 7 21 44 46 41 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 47 45 47 67 65 19 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -11. -18. -32. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 8. 12. 17. 23. 19. 15. 7. 1. -0. -8. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 22. 33. 41. 55. 59. 54. 45. 27. 16. 1. -11. -23. -44. -66. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 11.8 165.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 16.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 18.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 18.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 16.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 17.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 12.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -11.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.45 4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 4.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 93% is 14.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 15.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 85% is 20.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 96% is 14.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 72% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 92.8% 100.0% 99.0% 98.6% 85.4% 96.5% 72.0% 18.8% Logistic: 85.4% 89.2% 90.1% 86.7% 89.2% 89.2% 80.1% 3.4% Bayesian: 85.9% 94.4% 97.6% 97.6% 85.9% 96.7% 72.9% 3.9% Consensus: 88.0% 94.5% 95.6% 94.3% 86.8% 94.1% 75.0% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##