* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 09/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 69 77 85 97 101 102 102 99 100 94 89 82 76 75 73 V (KT) LAND 55 61 69 77 85 97 101 102 102 99 100 94 89 82 76 75 73 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 73 80 92 98 99 98 94 94 93 85 76 70 69 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 9 14 22 25 20 10 11 5 1 5 7 5 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 3 3 5 0 2 2 -1 0 0 5 11 12 5 0 SHEAR DIR 353 2 352 32 33 62 44 22 16 44 344 41 6 46 29 32 28 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 153 154 152 152 147 149 143 139 133 128 123 123 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 81 80 84 82 81 74 74 67 60 54 47 43 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 27 30 34 35 38 40 40 43 41 41 38 35 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 17 21 28 53 88 94 88 99 79 91 95 96 92 104 108 200 MB DIV 68 73 68 56 78 83 131 117 108 88 74 58 37 4 -33 -12 24 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 1 -3 -2 3 3 1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 781 840 906 983 1055 1183 1283 1284 1267 1246 1241 1269 1313 1373 1442 1502 1557 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.9 12.7 13.7 14.9 15.9 16.6 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.9 108.0 109.1 110.2 112.3 114.1 115.7 117.1 118.3 119.5 120.8 121.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 27 27 23 27 26 14 13 9 6 5 3 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 20. 25. 25. 29. 25. 23. 18. 13. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 30. 42. 46. 47. 47. 44. 45. 39. 34. 27. 21. 20. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.6 105.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.1% 50.7% 38.2% 26.0% 17.9% 25.4% 16.9% 14.2% Logistic: 15.7% 41.6% 18.4% 11.6% 2.6% 8.5% 6.5% 7.8% Bayesian: 18.9% 64.3% 45.3% 25.7% 7.1% 39.4% 17.2% 4.1% Consensus: 19.6% 52.2% 34.0% 21.1% 9.2% 24.4% 13.5% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##