* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 69 60 49 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 78 69 60 49 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 79 71 63 54 39 31 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 22 26 31 34 39 51 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 5 5 -3 -2 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 223 212 212 229 243 244 229 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.2 24.3 24.0 23.4 21.8 30.3 29.8 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 105 106 103 97 81 170 166 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 55 53 51 49 53 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 32 30 27 21 13 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 22 15 15 4 0 12 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 62 60 34 45 50 64 72 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 9 9 8 -1 6 16 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 674 576 476 366 261 125 35 -327 -699 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.8 24.7 25.6 26.5 28.5 31.1 34.1 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.9 118.6 118.3 117.8 117.2 116.0 114.4 112.5 110.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 13 16 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -19. -20. -20. -21. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -18. -29. -37. -44. -48. -52. -58. -63. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -20. -35. -40. -40. -40. -37. -34. -31. -28. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -16. -25. -36. -52. -62. -75. -84. -92. -99.-102.-105.-110.-114.-119.-119. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 22.8 118.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 445.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##