* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 09/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 51 61 70 84 94 100 100 96 91 83 77 70 61 47 27 V (KT) LAND 35 42 51 61 70 84 94 100 100 96 91 83 77 70 61 47 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 41 47 54 61 78 96 107 108 99 87 77 67 59 52 45 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 11 7 0 5 10 10 16 14 25 15 17 18 42 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -9 -7 -3 -1 -2 0 9 9 5 -2 10 6 11 7 SHEAR DIR 289 273 310 317 335 294 306 284 244 251 194 228 219 250 236 215 208 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.2 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.7 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.9 23.9 24.0 22.3 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 167 168 159 153 151 152 141 138 131 126 102 106 90 66 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 -50.3 -51.2 -52.2 -53.6 -54.2 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 67 70 69 69 71 73 73 70 60 53 51 56 44 45 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 24 25 25 28 32 34 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 63 79 82 82 78 65 62 89 117 140 159 112 79 51 -26 -99 200 MB DIV 71 109 113 86 66 78 129 74 145 86 84 27 21 30 47 44 46 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -5 -1 0 1 8 15 21 47 -14 -9 -4 -27 -51 -35 -1 LAND (KM) 950 1018 1102 1174 1200 1241 1223 1153 1032 898 834 887 1036 1572 1312 1592 1680 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.9 14.1 15.7 17.7 20.1 22.7 25.5 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 159.9 161.3 162.7 164.0 165.2 167.3 168.5 169.1 169.1 168.7 168.3 168.0 167.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 9 8 9 11 13 14 14 19 11 18 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 31 42 38 43 51 52 45 50 49 18 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -1. -4. -11. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 11. 18. 23. 25. 25. 24. 22. 19. 18. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 26. 35. 49. 59. 65. 65. 61. 56. 48. 42. 35. 26. 12. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.4 159.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 16.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 9.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 9.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 8.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -8.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 73% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 81% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 70% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.2% 70.5% 55.6% 43.3% 31.7% 72.9% 81.1% 69.8% Logistic: 66.1% 85.9% 83.0% 75.0% 88.4% 87.6% 88.9% 67.8% Bayesian: 43.6% 91.6% 92.1% 89.3% 72.7% 95.8% 92.8% 72.0% Consensus: 44.6% 82.7% 76.9% 69.2% 64.3% 85.4% 87.6% 69.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##