* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 43 43 42 48 52 60 65 72 77 76 70 69 64 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 43 43 42 48 52 60 65 72 77 76 70 69 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 39 40 41 43 49 57 68 79 86 86 81 74 70 65 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 29 31 35 27 23 12 10 8 13 16 10 5 14 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 -4 -4 -2 -4 0 0 -2 8 6 SHEAR DIR 33 25 15 1 355 340 301 246 225 242 211 157 178 102 341 338 355 SST (C) 24.9 24.9 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.5 27.0 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.8 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 104 104 104 109 110 112 116 121 122 122 120 113 111 113 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 88 88 88 88 91 91 93 96 99 100 101 99 95 93 94 92 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 -56.7 -56.5 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -56.2 -55.6 -55.5 -54.5 -54.3 -53.5 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 3 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 50 51 53 53 51 47 44 43 47 54 53 46 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 28 28 26 25 29 30 32 34 37 40 40 37 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR 148 146 143 154 162 164 163 172 170 168 174 176 163 133 81 65 75 200 MB DIV -38 -31 -6 0 -4 -4 7 16 4 18 -5 33 3 3 -37 4 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 0 -3 1 4 5 8 4 LAND (KM) 1282 1321 1362 1397 1434 1475 1484 1514 1570 1623 1630 1571 1474 1359 1226 1095 959 LAT (DEG N) 35.4 35.0 34.5 34.2 33.8 33.3 32.9 32.4 31.7 31.0 30.8 31.3 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.8 51.5 52.1 52.7 53.6 54.5 55.2 55.7 56.0 56.3 56.5 56.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 4 5 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 5 2 4 5 12 16 11 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -4. -3. -2. 0. 4. 7. 7. 2. 3. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 8. 12. 20. 25. 32. 37. 36. 30. 29. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.4 50.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 41 43 43 42 48 52 60 65 72 77 76 70 69 64 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 42 42 41 47 51 59 64 71 76 75 69 68 63 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 39 38 44 48 56 61 68 73 72 66 65 60 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 32 31 37 41 49 54 61 66 65 59 58 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT